How the alert fires
- Signal — estimates the chance of a sharp up-move in the next 1–3 hours from 12 price, volatility, volume and relative-strength inputs over a 60-minute lookback.
- Schedule — scans every 15 minutes from 7:30 AM – 12:00 PM PT (19 grid scans/day), with additional pre/post-grid live checks.
- Fire rule — confidence must reach ≥ 0.70; each ticker can fire once per day. Universe: AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, AVGO.
- Result — after the close, the next 3-hour window is replayed. HIT means price reached +1%; Best Up and Worst Down show the maximum excursions from entry.
- Option proxy — estimates an at-the-money call using Massive five-minute bars and an assumed 4% round-trip spread. It is research evidence, not an executable quote or trading instruction.
Frozen manual exit guide: +75%
Among fixed option-profit exits tested at +25%, +50%, +75%, +100% and +150%, selling at +75% produced the highest 2026 average return.
The target was reached on about 20% of alerts. If it was not reached, the backtest exited 180 minutes after the alert or at market close, whichever came first.
This maximized the mean among fixed-profit targets, not among every strategy: holding had a higher average but depended more heavily on rare large winners. Returns are percentages of option premium after an assumed 4% round-trip trading cost. Newer results are regime-dependent and the overall sample is not reliably profitable. This is not an auto-trading rule.